Monday, 8 June 2009
Swing to Labour in Totteridge By-Election
As you will have read elsewhere, the Conservatives comfortably won the by-election in Totteridge last week. Not The Barnet Times congratulates Alison Cornelius on her election to the council.
However, the shine will have been taken of her victory by a closer analysis of the result below which shows a marginal, but very significant, swing to Labour of 0.01%. The reason this is significant is because everywhere else in the country, the Labour vote collapsed.
Nobody seriously expected the Conservatives to lose a seat in their safest ward, but given the anti Labour mood in the country, it is quite remarkable that their vote held up here.
This by-election was caused by the resignation of Caroline Margo who has moved to Hertsmere with her young family. She stood for election last week in Watling and had a stunning victory with over 71% of the vote. In her new ward, the Labour vote completely disintegrated, as you would expect.
The Totteridge result is certain to be investigated by the Conservative leadership. If Labour’s vote can hold up in a ward where they had absolutely no hope of winning, Party managers will want to know the reason, as they will clearly be worried for the General Election.
Not The Barnet Times suggests that a quick glance through the archives of this blog will reveal why Mike Freer is the only Conservative Council leader to see a swing to Labour this week.